The five data points below show monthly profits from a hypothetical company. Click anywhere in the shaded area to predict month 6's profit.
One more question. This company was randomly selected from a pool of firms that are equally likely to be high performers (long-run average monthly profit:
$100,000) or low performers (long-run average monthly profit:
$0). Before seeing any data, the odds were 50/50. Based on the five months of data you just saw, how much do you want to move from that starting point?
Starting point: 50%
50%
0% — certainly low performer
100% — certainly high performer