Evaluating the Spatial Consequences of a Climate Tipping Point
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the ocean current system that carries warm water north through the Atlantic, could collapse as the climate warms. This map shows how a collapse could reshape economic outcomes around the world, using results from a spatial economic model by José-Luis Cruz, Klaus Desmet and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg. Each cell shows the percent change in welfare or real GDP from an AMOC collapse, compared with the same warming scenario without one. A collapse would cool much of the Northern Hemisphere, bringing large losses to Northern Europe and other high-latitude regions, while some hotter regions in Africa and South and Southeast Asia gain. Use the slider to compare emissions scenarios and years.